​Idlib: A new war might have started

TURKEY - In Brief 05 Feb 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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With the killing of 8 Turkish military and civilian personnel in Idlib, the long-feared “war” between Turkey and Damascus may have already started. Today, President Erdogan issued his final warning to Assad by saying "Syria is right now trying to buy time by driving those innocent and grieving people in Idlib toward our borders," Mr Erdogan was quoted as saying by Turkish media. "We will not allow Syria the opportunity to gain ground there." (BBC) The big question is how the war will affect Turkey’s relations with Russia and Iran, which apparently had taken a renewed interest in Idlib. Today, pro-AKP Yeni Safak reported that over the recent few days the Turkish military high command has dispatched over 400 tanks and armored vehicles to Serakeb (map provided below), as Mr. Sedat Ergin of daily Hurriyet claims that that Turkey’s monitoring posts are being re-fortified and reconfigured as defensive outposts to prevent further incursions by Syrian National Army. None of this will stop Assad, or the Iranian militia which ran to help him, according to al Monitor (link here), simply because Erdogan openly announces that he is not willing to sacrifice Turkey’s strategic alliance with Russia.In fact, he added that the relationship is so deep that he shall not renege on the S-400 anti-missile systems contract, which I’m certain has not escaped the notice of Washington DC decision-makers. The fact that Erdogan wants to sort out Idlib without risking the relationship with Russia, emboldens Assad, as well as reducing the incentive for Putin to help him out.In some sense, the situation is like a poker table where one player insists turning up his cards, while others keeps theirs clo...