​Idlib: Erdogan reads the riot act

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Feb 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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President Erdogan’s speech in parliamentary caucus today has ramifications beyond Turkey’s Idlib policy. It is obviously affecting the exchange rate, which slipped another notch vs the dollar, as I wrote these lines, and it may be the last warning to Putin. "If any harm comes to our soldiers in observation posts [in Idlib] or anywhere [in Syria], I declare from there that we will hit regime forces everywhere regardless of the Sochi deal," Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his party's parliamentary group. Turkey is determined to push back Syrian regime forces from Turkey’s observation posts in Idlib by the end of February, said Erdogan. The observation posts were established in 2018 under the Astana peace process. To push back the Syrian forces, Turkey “will do what is necessary via land and air without hesitation," added Erdogan, according to Turkey’s official news agency AA. This means he is ready to heed his junior partner Devlet Bahceli’s call to expand the zone of conflict beyond Idlib to punish Syria wherever opportunity presents, or wherever such strikes may hurt Assad the most. He also directly accused Russia and Iran by stating that the "The regime, backed by Russian forces and Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians, committing massacres and shedding blood."According to pro-AKP TV commentators, Erdogan will not hesitate to defy Russian military presence to push back Syrian National Army to end-2019 lines (the best I can explain Turkey’s demand from Assad regarding Idlib) and may reconsider the strategic alliance if Putin refuses to persuade Assad. Briefly turning to Putin, I admit his job is not easy.He has invested tremendously in an Assad victory...