Ignore the headline, focus on core, services

TURKEY - Report 05 Jun 2023 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices were unchanged over a month ago in May, thanks to pre-election free natural gas offer to households for a month, with the 12-month rate dropping to 39.6%, from 43.7% in April. Domestic producer prices rose modestly by 0.7% in the month, m/m, thanks, among others, to subdued energy prices and a relatively stable TL, with the 12-month rate falling sharply to 40.8% from 52.1% a month earlier, and the wedge between CPI- and PPI-inflation rates narrowing to a little over one pp (Graph 1; Table 1).

The standard contributions chart shows that 80% of the 3 pp drop in monthly inflation -- between May 2023 vs. May 2022 – is attributable to one category, housing, which, of course, is where the drop in gas prices shows up (Graph 2).

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