Politics: Impact of the second presidential debate and a troubling legislative agenda

MEXICO - Report 06 May 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The second of three presidential candidates’ debates was held on April 28. Unlike the first event on April 7, in which Xóchitl Gálvez was widely seen as having squandered a crucial opportunity to eat into Claudia Sheinbaum’s lead, this time the opposition coalition nominee appeared better prepared, managing to more effectively present her own proposals while leaving Sheinbaum on the defensive, looking both tense and frustrated . The performance revitalized Gálvez's campaign, leaving her in a much better position to tighten the race even as it appears out of the question at this late date for her to come anywhere near overtaking the frontrunner.

Sheinbaum’s more defensive posture also reflected the pressure López Obrador exerts over her, having reportedly complained to her after the first debate that she had failed to focus on defending him. But by narrowing her focus to a defense of AMLO’s 4T project she reinforced concerns about how much she can govern in her own right.

López Obrador’s long reach was also visible last week as Morena and allies pushed through the outgoing congress three of the 18 constitutional reforms AMLO announced in early February. All three are widely viewed as greatly concentrating power in the hands of the presidency and limiting the rights of citizens to appeal against government decisions while also offering the electorate an additional incentive to vote for Morena with a financially irresponsible pension reform.

In this week’s Outlook we detail the main proposals the two candidates brought to the debate and analyze both the state of the race and the reforms Congress passed as well as their future implications.

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