Implications of Trump's win for the GCC

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 06 Nov 2024 by Justin Alexander
Back in September, I shared some reflections on the potential implications of the US election for the GCC and wider region, as well as reviewing the history of relations between the Gulf States and the Trump and Biden Administrations. There will be lots more to unpick on this in the coming weeks and months (including in my upcoming 2025 Outlook webinar on Tuesday 12 November). To start with, here are five implications for consideration: 1. Gulf companies and states will face higher borrowing costs as US interest rates stay higher for longer due to inflationary policies (tariffs, mass deportations, tax cuts) and Treasury yields rise (as they have already begun doing), amidst concerns about further deterioration in the US fiscal position. This will be a nuisance for the GCC, but it could be more damaging for regional allies such as Egypt and Jordan. 2. Deregulation in the US energy sector should benefit Gulf states investing in US LNG export terminals. However, if there are signs it could lead to a significant increase in US oil output then that could cause Saudi Arabia to shift its strategy from price control through OPEC+ to winning back market share. 3. US partnerships with each of the Gulf states will be re-examined through changed priorities. These include the proposed defense/nuclear energy pact with Saudi Arabia and the ongoing AI/renewable energy cooperations with the UAE. Israel hawks in Congress may seek to force Qatar to extradite members of Hamas and some have even argued for the closure of Al-Udeid Airbase. 4. Further global fragmentation, due to an intensified trade war with China and Trump's dislike of multilateralism, could hamper GCC efforts to act as "m...

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.