Impressive Headline, Details Not So...

TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2016 by Murat Ucer

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and a higher-than-expected – 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%; Table 1). In seasonally- and working day-adjusted (WDA) terms, growth was a more modest 0.75%, q/q, or a SAAR of about 3%. The latter was also the lowest growth rate of the year, suggesting that despite the impressive headline in year-on-year terms, the economy has been losing momentum through Q4. It is also worth emphasizing that the year-on-year figures in WDA terms paint a somewhat more subdued and accurate picture of where we stand, according to which GDP grew by 4.1% in Q4 (markedly below the 5.7% headline), which was also slower than the previous quarter’s 5.3%.

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