Improving the Context
One of Russia’s most progressive governors was publicly arrested based on corruption accusations in what was in fact a conflict between several security services and the Presidential Administration clans. The carefully planned, staged and publicized arrest shows that the rules of the game have changed for regional governors, and complying with presidential decisions may be not sufficient to keep one’s post, or even one’s freedom, if there is a conflict with local law enforcement.
Russia has clearly indicated it wants to improve its relations with Europe, given that being locked into a forced partnership with China alone is a difficult challenge, and Moscow needs more partners from which to choose. With the Ukrainian conflict “freezing”, and Europe weakened by dealing with Brexit, the current moment seems a window of opportunity to start improving these relations.
Moscow found a way of improving its relations with Turkey as the two countries improved interaction in Syria, and the Turkish leader eventually came up with a mild apology for shooting down a Russian plane, thus allowing Moscow to start “forgiving” it. The process may, however, take a while.
Russians are still interested in seeing their country as a globally influential power, and a large share of the population believes the country is very influential in global affairs. The number of people who want Russia to become a superpower similar to the Soviet Union increased in the last few years and remains stable.
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