Politics: In the final leg of AMLO’s government, presidential confrontational style stokes mounting political and social risks
With presidential elections a little more than 14 months away, President López Obrador is stepping up efforts to try and make good on the promises he made throughout his governing project despite a record in which his policy approaches and style of governing have produced results counter to his stated objectives. He is becoming increasingly reckless with his confrontational style, not only lashing out ever more violently against anyone seen as spreading bad news or criticizing him for his inconsistencies, but also needlessly provoking fights with the United States over security policy and the fight against drug trafficking, among many other issues.
A review of the risks already present or likely to emerge that could further complicate the government's task in the future is worrisome. Although there is no risk of a financial crisis on the horizon, risks on the level of essential government functioning abound. A swelling public deficit, together with the extent to which critical government departments and programs have been starved year after year of necessary funds, including security, health, education and indispensable infrastructure such as the water system, will saddle next administration with serious problems.
Sporadic social protests continue to express the discontent of certain segments of society, but with very limited practical impact as they have failed to sway any government policies or actions. But the risks of sociopolitical conflict are apparent.
To the extent that upcoming elections result in a very close vote, they could become the subject of protests and court challenges as well as political and electoral conflict, forming some of the broader risks to democracy. Although such an outcome would generate problems this year in the State of Mexico and possibly even in Coahuila, the most serious thing would be if the presidential election were to be challenged and the next president were to have diminished legitimacy.
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