In search of bold action
As the number of patients rose to ca 24K as of Saturday, President Erdogan was compelled to instate an intercity travel ban for 30 major cities and mandatory facemasks in public. Yet, he shied away from a nationwide curfew. While the new public health measures may be useful in slowing down the epidemic, it may be a case of too late and too little. The true number of cases could be higher, while the virus is now present in almost every province of Turkey. The health system is already sweating, soon it will experience fatigue.
The politics of COVID-19 is getting nasty too, with the administration competing against CHP-held municipalities to bring relief to the needy. Yet, there is no conclusive evidence that the voters are lining up with the administration or the opposition.
As expected, we’ve started seeing the first troubling signs of a post-COVID world in the March activity and export data, which is very likely to get visibly worse in April.
Base money has been growing at a rapid pace and the March cash budget data, we reckon, will show a marked deterioration this week, but we think this is just a beginning. In the absence of social cohesion and a comprehensive (well-targeted and well-communicated) program, things are likely to get worse and market volatility to heighten, in our view.
Cosmo looked at the dollar/TL pair on Friday night and experienced cold shivers. He is afraid of another currency shock a’ la the (in)famous Father Brunson event.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report