An improving trade balance with China
For many years, China ranked first in trade with Indonesia compared to Indonesia's trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, anything that happened in China might affect Indonesia. That is why it is interesting to watch the trade balance between Indonesia and China at a time when there has been a significant slowdown in that country.
Looking at the data from January 2011, Indonesia's trade balances with China were mostly deficits. However, an interesting development took place when for the first time during that period, in September and October 2021, Indonesia's trade balances with China registered surpluses. Those surpluses turned back into deficits in November and December 2021.
In 2022, Indonesia's trade balance with China produced a similar twist. In March and April 2022, Indonesia's trade balance with China registered surpluses. This was repeated once again, from September to December 2022. In 2023, in the months of February, April and from August to October, Indonesia's trade balances with China were once again in surplus.
The cumulative deficit in the trade balances with China for the period between January to November 2022 was $3,711 million, of which cumulative exports were $57,676.2 million while cumulative imports were $61,387.2 million. However, for the same period of 2023, the cumulative trade deficit from January to November shrank to just $166.2 million. The improved trade balance with China seems likely to continue and to accelerate in the coming years. Indonesian trade with China may enter positive territory in 2024, and such surpluses could widen further in the coming years.
In the meantime, the Central Board of Statistics released its balance of trade report for November 2023. The trade balance registered another large surplus, albeit smaller than that of October. The surplus in November stood at $2,412.2 million compared to the $3,473.8 million achieved in October. The total trade surplus for the first eleven months of 2023 stood at $33,626.4 million, 33.6% below the $50,573,6 million achieved in the same period of the previous year. Exports in November 2023 reached $21,998.6 million while imports were $19,586.4 million. Cumulative exports from January to November 2023 reached $236.405.4 million while cumulative imports for the same period reached $202,779.0 million
The Central Board of Statistics also reported that the Consumer Price Index for the month of November showed inflation of 0.38%. With that monthly inflation, the Y/Y rate in November reached 2.86%, still in the lower part of the inflation corridor administered by the Central Bank. Against that background, Bank Indonesia kept the benchmark rate constant at 6.00% at its policy meeting held on December 20-21, 2023.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report