Industrial growth numbers look good, supported by an additional working day in February

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 18 Mar 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, the country’s industrial growth numbers looked strong – both in the case of mining and manufacturing segments. It occurred, not least, due to a leap year and an additional working day in February. The mining segment grew by 3.6% y-o-y in February, which looked strong compared to January’s 0.2% y-o-y growth. In 2M, mining grew by 1.9% y-o-y. Note that in 2023, as a whole, it grew by 4.6%. The manufacturing segment expanded y-o-y by 6.9% and 7.9% in January and February, which brought the 2M24 y-o-y tally to 7.4% (in 2023, as a whole, it grew by 4.1). Industrial output in total increased by 3.4%, 5.7%, and 4.6% in January, February, and 2M24 (all numbers are y-o-y). Industry as a whole grew by 4.3% in 2023. We refer to the published y-o-y statistics and skip the m-o-m data as the latter does not match the former (which is not unusual in Kazakhstan statistics) and, eventually, the final annual official growth stems from the incremental (cumulative) y-o-y growth (i.e., 2M, 1Q, 1H, 9M, etc.) statistics in Kazakhstan irrespective to what the m-o-m figures show. Meanwhile, the official statistical publications for various indicators do not reveal the m-o-m growth data. The problem is that one cannot rely on seasonal and calendar adjustments in such cases. Therefore, whether hypothetical seasonally adjusted growth accelerates or decelerates remains unclear. At a glance, there are signs of a slight deceleration of industrial growth in Kazakhstan, as well as for some other indicators, such as investments. The latter grew by 7.9% y-o-y in 2M24, while in 2023, as a whole, the figure was 13.7%.