Industrial Production and Leading Indicator: Weak Growth in the Year

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Mar 2014 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Part of the contraction of industrial output in December (-3.7%) was reversed with the rise of 2.9% in January, continuing the recent pattern of extreme volatility of the monthly data (Graph 1). The 12-month rate remained negative and virtually stable (-2.4%, versus -2.5% in December). Based on this, the result in January does not mean that industry has entered a sustained recovery phase. The carry over to the first quarter is still 0.1%. Since the industrial performance in February is expected to be weak, the first-quarter result should not bring any joy. Graph 1Industrial Production – Rat...

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