Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do not deserve any attention as they completely mismatch y-o-y numbers and for practical purposes one has to calibrate their own m-o-m growth statistics based on y-o-y time series. The mining segment was the main driver of industrial growth as it was up y-o-y by 12.5% in October and 9.6% in 10M25 amid a low 2024 base. Gas extraction increased y-o-y in October and 10M25 by 29.6% and 16.7%. The same numbers for oil were 20.1% and 13.9%. It looks as though Kazakhstan is not yet eager to compensate OPEC+ for previously exceeded oil production quotas. However, at some point, it might start fulfilling its promises. If it starts happening in 2026, then one could see a rapid deceleration in the mining segment. The manufacturing segment posted clear deceleration as it was up y-o-y by a mere 2.2% in October so that the 10M25 y-o-y tally displayed 5.8% growth (versus 6.2% y-o-y in 9M25). Interestingly, oil refining was down by about 5% y-o-y in October, but still up by an impressive 6.3% y-o-y in 10M25. Generally, manufacturing growth gradually decelerates, which looks natural amid high inflation renewed appreciation of the tenge in real terms and decelerating household credit growth. Deceleration in manufacturing will likely spread into the next year, but still, industrial growth should continue at a decent rate as the country keeps attracting FDI.