Industrial production remains almost flat y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 27 Aug 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Recent industrial production statistics suggest the industry as a whole hasn’t grown much this year. Earlier, we noted that Rosstat surprisingly used two different base years for the same time series, which caused a big mismatch between y-o-y and m-o-m data. In its latest release, Rosstat revised the figures, now basing real-term industrial production on the 2023 base year, using that year’s sectoral weights. The updated data looks consistent and shows near-zero y-o-y growth each quarter, with some monthly swings. In 1Q26, industry fell 0.1% y-o-y; in 2Q26, it rose 0.2%; and in July, it increased 0.4%, leading to a 0.1% y-o-y gain for 7M26, according to Rosstat. Seasonally adjusted, production saw slight average m-o-m growth from February to July after a sharp 4.7% drop in January. That January figure still seems unusually low, suggesting more revisions to industrial statistics could be coming. Overall, it looks like the industry is set for slight positive growth this year, likely around 0.5% or a bit more, with mining still in the red (down 0.9% y-o-y in 7M26) and manufacturing possibly ending up about 1.0% or slightly higher. Given the current state of the Russian economy, no major changes in the growth model are expected, even in manufacturing. While manufacturing saw a sort of “pump” in previous years, it’s not exactly in the “dump” phase yet, but pumping efforts to keep momentum aren’t quite enough. Still, production of certain “special” vehicles, equipment, pharmaceuticals, and “special” clothing is on the rise, according to Rosstat’s data. The rest of manufacturing seems weighed down by a strong ruble, as imports grow. Car production rose 8.2% y-o-y, including m...