Industrial Production: Slow Recovery in the First Half and Likely Deceleration in the Second

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Aug 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Industrial output in June reversed the 1.8% decline in May, growing by 1.9%, and the rate over the preceding 12 months was 3.1%. However, it must be considered that the seasonal adjustment made by the IBGE does not account for the effect of the Corpus Christi holiday, which usually falls in June but this year came in May[1]. Therefore, after correcting for this holiday, the decline in May would have been 0.9% and the rise in June would have been only 0.2% (Graph 1). This reveals that industry is not expanding at a 1.9% pace, as is also evident from the dynamic of the three-month moving aver...

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