Industrial Production Stagnant and Without Good Perspectives

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Oct 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Industrial production in August was stable, causing a decline of 1.2% in the 12-month variation (Graph 1). With this, the carry-over to the third quarter reached -1.7%, meaning that for output to remain stable in the quarter, growth in September will have to be 5.1%, which is highly unlikely. In other words, the probability is high that the variation of both industrial production and overall GDP will be negative in the third quarter. Graph 1 Industrial Production The weak result was observed in various measures. The diffusion index was 55.6%, with the majority of segments that recorded grow...

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