Industrial Production: The Appearances are Misleading

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Oct 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

At first glance, it appears that by growing 0.7% in August, repeating the expansion measured in July, that industrial production has finally started to recover. However, appearances can be deceiving. First of all, the recent improvement is exclusively due to growth in the mineral extraction industry, revealing the low diffusion of growth. Second, the three-month moving average growth of industrial output declined for the fifth month and the 12-month rate is still extremely negative (-5.4%).

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