Inflation: a Worrying Picture

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Jan 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

Inflation in 2015 reached 10.67%, more than 4 percentage points above the top of the target interval. The main problem, however, is not the past behavior of inflation, but rather the perspectives for 2016. First, inflation is extremely resistant to falling. Second, the present recession turns to be the deepest and longest in the past 35 years. Finally, the government is facing strong political pressures clamoring for policies to jump start growth, be it by expanding credit or signaling the lowering of the interest rate.

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