Inflation Already Exceeds 11%

TURKEY - Report 03 Apr 2017 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1% in March, which raised the 12-month rate to 11.3%, up from 10.1% in February. Producer prices also rose sharply to a 12-month rate of 16.1%, up from 15.4% (Table 1; Graph 1). Contrary to consensus expectation, CPI-inflation going over the 11% mark did not have to wait till April/May. As far as our forecast goes, the slippage largely stemmed from food inflation, which rose by 1.9% in the month (March 2016: -1.5%), markedly higher than we had factored into our forecast. Food inflation rose to 12.5%, y/y, up from 8.7% in February, almost entirely accounting for the increase in the 12-month headline CPI-rate (Graphs 2-3).

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