Inflation and Growth: Where to?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Sep 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Executive Summary Inflation in July was near zero, but this does not represent a trend reversal. The 12-month forward-looking expectations continue to rise, at more than 6% a year; the 12-month inflation of non-tradables is still growing above the upper limit of the target interval; and even though last week the real strengthened slightly, returning to R$2.30/US$, the perspectives are for additional pressures on tradables prices. The signals from the Central Bank are for further tightening, the only doubts being where the cycle will stop. In the minutes of the last COPOM meeting, the Centra...

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