Inflation eases further, but looking sticky

TURKEY - Report 04 Mar 2019 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 0.16%, m/m, in February, somewhat lower than the market consensus of some 0.4%-0.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence easing further to 19.7%, from 20.4% in January. The 12-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to drop as well, to 29.6% from 32.9% during this period, with the spread between the two inflation indices now narrowing to some 10 percentage points.

In terms of contributions, about half the drop in the 12-month CPI rate is attributed to lower food inflation, which eased to a (albeit still-hugely elevated) 12-month rate of 29.3% in February, down from 31% a month earlier, with a sharper drop, somewhat interestingly, in processed food inflation, suggesting, arguably, that the (indirect) effect from the recent municipal sales has been relatively limited.

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