Inflation enters the target range, but BoI expected to be patient

ISRAEL - Report 16 Jul 2018 by Jonathan Katz

June's CPI (0.1% m/m, 1.3% y/y) surprised on the upside on higher food and housing prices. Inflation is set to accelerate to 1.7% y/y in July-August, while core inflation remains much lower, posing a dilemma for the Bank of Israel. The MPC is more likely to remain patient before deciding to tighten (we think Q119), unless we see further shekel weakening. The trade deficit surged in Q218 on lower exports and some import growth.

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