Inflation falls below 11% in February

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 10 Mar 2023 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation in February was at 0.46%, and it fell to 10.99% y-o-y. At the same time, Rosstat announced that in seven days ending on March 6, inflation was 0.0%, implying that YTD inflation remained the same, namely at 1.3%. As inflation was close to zero in the past three weeks, it looks as though it may fall to around 3.5% y-o-y (and even below) by the end of this month. In April, inflation will go down below 3.0%. Even though the CBR might prefer to stay on hold in March (the next BoD meeting is due on March 17), it won’t look reasonable to wait for another occasion. Amid decelerating rate of growth of nominal incomes, the economy requires lower rates across the board. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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