Inflation falls to 4.4%

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Feb 2019 by Romeo Bernardo
As expected, headline inflation eased further to 4.4 percent in January from 5.1 percent in December, with core inflation slowing down to 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent over the same period. The headline rate reflects a month on month inflation of 0.2% traced to increased fish prices. In contrast, rice prices continued to decline on a monthly basis. The impact of increased fuel excise taxes implemented last month is not evident in January's inflation print, perhaps due to delayed adjustments at the pump. Fuel-related items showed negative month-on-month inflation rates.The latest inflation outturn is in line with our full year 2.9% forecast in 2019. We are not expecting any change in the monetary policy stance this Thursday in light of signals from BSP officials of the need to first gauge the impact of last year's total 175bp policy interest rate increase.TABLE 1Major Sources of Inflation in January 2019**2012=100Note: Some figures may not exactly add up due to roundingSource: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)figure 1Inflation ForecastSource: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

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