Inflation: No Change in the Trajectory

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 23 Jun 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The IPCA-15 for June rose 0.47%, virtually the same as the May IPCA (0.46%). It was also higher than the consensus forecast, which was for further deceleration. Inflation over the past 12 months is now 6.41% and it’s just a question of time before it creeps above the upper limit of the target interval (6.5%). Before evaluating the behavior of the trend measures – core and diffusion – which confirm this forecast, we first examine the behavior of some specific price groups.

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