Inflation Report: Acknowledging Higher Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 30 Jun 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

Central Bank publishes systematically its assessment of the probability that inflation will exceed the upper bound of the target interval in the current year and, more recently, since the end of 2009, publishes the same probability for the following year. This estimate for 2014 is 46% (in the reference scenario), well above the average of 13% in the Inflation Reports for June in previous years (Graph 1). More worrying still is the increased probability that inflation will remain above the top of the interval next year as well, now estimated at 30% (Graph 2).

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