Inflation Report: End-2025 forecast up, but easing cycle very likely to continue

TURKEY - Report 07 Feb 2025 by Murat Ucer

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank, somewhat unexpectedly, revised up its end-2025 inflation forecast already to 24% from 21% previously (midpoints), while maintaining the 5 pp band around the forecast, as well as the 12% forecast for next year (see Slides 39-40 at link here). The revision now places the CBRT Market Participants Expectations Survey (January: 27.1%) within the uncertainty band.

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