Inflation report presentation: some quick reactions

TURKEY - Report 27 Jul 2023 by Murat Ucer

The CBRT released the year’s third Inflation Report today, which corresponded with Governor Erkan’s first public appearance. The Bank revised the yearend inflation forecast up substantially to 58% (mid-point), from 22.3% previously, citing several reasons like increases in food and administered prices, as well as a cryptic one, namely “forecast deviation and change in forecasting approach”, which is probably a diplomatic way of saying the model was tweaked in the past to get somewhat more favorable results (see Slide 28 at link here for the reasons and their respective contributions).

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