Inflation risk from rice policy?

PHILIPPINES - Report 12 Apr 2017 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

Many economic watchers have raised concerns about recent increases in consumer prices. From below 2% in the 16 months to August 2016, the headline inflation rate climbed past 3% in February and March 2017, with the BSP expecting the uptrend to continue through 3Q17, when inflation is forecast to be “very close” to the upper end of the 2-4% target band. Despite what seems like a rapid rise, inflation outturns, traced in part to price pressures from rising international crude oil and a weaker peso, are in line with our own expectations of the inflation path… so far.

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