Initial signs of growth deceleration

ISRAEL - Report 20 Jul 2020 by Jonathan Katz

There are increasing indicators pointing to weakening activity due to increasing restrictions on the economy; this trend is expected to continue in the short run. June’s CPI (-0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y) came in according to expectations; core inflation (-0.5% y/y) remains well below target. Today the BoI will publish the protocol of the most recent rate decision, which is expected to express the downside risks to the economy and possibly two MPC members in favor of a rate reduction. We see domestic bond issuance (tradeable) averaging 13bn ILS per month until year-end; steady BoI bond purchases will maintain fairly stable yields.

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