Insecurity and violence overshadows Lasso’s impeachment in the news
The unceasing news of acts of violence and even massacres, both inside jails and outside them, have displaced news of Lasso’s impeachment, which should be the most important development for Ecuadorians at this time. However, there is evidence that Ecuadorians, who have been undergoing threats from organized crime and from nature in the past three weeks, are more concerned about living day to day without being attacked or losing their homes to a flood than paying attention to a process undermined by the mediocrity and bluntly vested interests of many legislators.
The inspection commission in charge of reviewing the accusations of embezzlement against Lasso is going through a tough time as witnesses called to testify against Lasso have not shown up when requested. Thus, UNES’s desperation to capture power burst open last Thursday when the party presented a request for a plenary vote in favor of cross death. In Ecuadorian legislation this political alternative is contemplated for both the executive and the legislative powers, but in the latter case, the process must be approved by a two-thirds majority for it to proceed.
This latest move left UNES without the support of a good number of legislators from Pachakutik, Izquierda Democratica and Social Christians. It is impossible to know if the order to submit this petition came from Belgium or not, but it reveals that votes even for the impeachment of the president might not be fully guaranteed.
As we mentioned, the strength of this year's El Niño has devastated several towns, especially in the coastal and southern Andean regions. The destruction of roads and bridges will force the government to spend much more than on routine maintenance, and the $250 million secured in loans from IDB and the World Bank will most probably fall short.
In addition, in Q1 the Central Government has received close to $370 million less in oil revenues than in Q1 2022, and given the downtrend in oil prices and in production, the $3.3b in oil revenues initially estimated for this year’s budget might be difficult to achieve. In this context, we expect a higher deficit, of around 3% of GDP, and higher financial needs, of around $8.8b. Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena will have a titanic job ahead to manage the fiscal cash flow and secure international financing to meet all extraordinary needs for this year, including the higher expenditures imposed by insecurity.
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