Interim Results of the Kursk Operation

UKRAINE - In Brief 22 Aug 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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More than two weeks have passed since Ukrainian forces began the Kursk operation. The dust has settled a bit, and we now have a clearer picture of what has happened. In short, the Russians have concentrated all their forces on the Avdiivka area (now referred to as the Pokrovsk direction), while Ukraine, following strengthened mobilization efforts, managed to assemble substantial reserves, which were deployed to the Sumy area under the pretext of preventing an assault similar to the one near Kharkiv in May. Russia did not respond to this maneuver, and the Ukrainian General Staff made its move, which turned out to be completely unexpected for the Kremlin. The operation is still unfolding, and it's likely that we will see much more interesting developments as a result of this move. Even at this stage, we can observe several impacts of the Kursk operation on the course of the war: Extra pressure on Russian society. Polls show that the average Russian does not feel responsible for starting the war, referring to it as a "special military operation," which shapes their perception of the aggression in Ukraine. However, the situation with more than 100,000 Russian refugees is a different story—one that is raising tension within Russian society and cannot be ignored. Liberated territories. In just two weeks of the Kursk operation, Ukrainian forces have liberated as much territory as the Russians managed to occupy in Donbas since the start of the year. While the scale may not be dramatic, it is significant for political reasons and for shaping narratives with our Western partners. If any negotiations are planned, holding a substantial portion of Russian territory will be a seriou...