Intervention in Syria, headaches in Ankara

TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2013 by Atilla Yesilada

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After the press conference by Secretary of State Kerry, where he accused Assad of using chemical weapons without a shred of doubt, the world began to take the threat of a NATO-led intervention in Syria more seriously. Pentagon let it be known, that if such a campaign were to happen, its aims will be limited. Ankara immediately volunteered to enter the coalition, which would mean that it will have to carry out a military role, if it is asked so. According to Ankara sources, the NATO commanded Incirlik Airbase in Adana province may be used as the staging ground for airstrikes, which would technically put Turkey at war with Syria. While we find an intervention in Syria morally justified, and AKP forced to contribute to retain any credibility in the Middle East, there is almost no upside for Turkey, unless Assad capitulates.  It is too early to bet on a strike, much less define its scope and modus operandi, but we think USA and allies like UK and France would use sea-to-land missiles and aircraft sorties to take out Assad’s missile silos, command centers and perhaps some of the other war infrastructure. The objective is not beat Assad, but to force him and his allies Russia and Iran to sue for peace in conditions favorable to the opposition.We seriously doubt whether a limited war can be executed in the complex dynamics of the Syrian War.  It is this conclusion that compelled Chief of Staff Dempsey to publicly resist calls for an intervention before. Also, Pentagon's track record of carrying out its mission as intended –with the exception of Libya—is dismal.We will review our scenarios going forward as the situation gains clarity, but currently we believe that unless a qui...