Investments: Beware of Over-optimism

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Jun 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the quantity of capital goods imported and exported show that at least until April, gross fixed capital formation was growing strongly (Graph 1), in sharp contrast to the pattern in 2012. The relevant question at this point is whether the pace at the start of 2013 will hold up for the rest of the year, o...

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