Is the economy recovering?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Jun 2019 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

​From a technical standpoint, Brazil is not in a recession, and possibly will not enter this phase of the economic cycle in the next quarter, when there should be slight (and mediocre) growth. However, although a double dip is not in sight, the recovery of economic activity is disappointing to say the least. As is evident in Chart 1, per capita income (the relevant concept to measure the society feeling about how much poorer it has become since the start of the recession in 2014) is 9% below the previous peak, so it has now been 21 quarters (more than five years) since the start of the cycle! In light of the various indicators available, growth of 1% in 2019 is very optimistic, meaning that per capita income will remain at that level for the rest of this year.

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