​Is Turkey deferring S-400 activation?

TURKEY - In Brief 21 Apr 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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In penning this Market Brief I’m torn between accuracy and timeliness.I opted out for timeliness, hoping the report by Reuters that Turkey will defer the activation ofS-400 anti-missile systems “to a future date” will not be refuted by the Erdogan administration. Traditionally, the Palace is extremely sensitive to news or allegations that it is compromising on any issue with the “West”, issuing a rebuttal at light speed.I’m further encouraged to write this MB by statements by Morgan Ortagus, the spokesperson for US Department of State, who said “We believe Mr. Erdogan has understood our (unwavering) position vis-a-vis S-400s” (source:SÖZCÜ newspaper, link here.) Keeping my fingers crossed that presidential spokesperson Mr. Ibrahim Kalin will not shoot down the Reuters report today, I’m going to speculate about the reasons and consequences. The official reason would be Russia’s uncooperative attitude in Idlib, Syria and Libya, where the pro-Turkish Government of National Accord (GNA) captured 8 towns from General Haftar, which was met by increased Russian aid. The unofficial reason I conjecture is the excruciating pressure on the Turkish currency, which despite alleged interventions by state banks reported to exceed “billions of dollars” failed to appreciate against the dollar. On Sunday, CBRT head Mr. Uysal revealed that Turkey is officially in contact with partner states for swap lines. Then, President Erdogan had a telephone conference with Mr. Trump, where I believe swap lines might have been brought up by the former. At the end, Erdogan might have grasped the writing on the wall:S-400s or swap lines. Of course, as I stated in an earlier Weekly Report, the compromis...