ISIS update: When tail-risk becomes clear and present danger

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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The ISIS Blitzkrieg in Iraq swept army and police forces aside rapidly, adding the oil town Beiji and Saddam’s birthplace of Tikrit to the list of terror organization’s conquests. Total havoc reigns in the ISIS-affected areas, with half a million Iraqis reported to be on the run. Much of what hear is unconfirmed, but the outskirts of very volatile and ethnically mixed town of Kirkuk and the largest Turkmeni city Tuzhourmatu also appear to have been attacked, even though ISIS representatives claimed they have no plans to battle the Kurds. Maliki threatened reprisal, but his suggestion of forming a volunteer army to fight back ISIS shows he has out of ideas and men willing to fight. I do know that the Kurdish peshmerge are moving South but can’t decide whether it is a defensive move, or preparation for an assault. What was in the morning a tail-risk for Turkish diplomacy and markets evolved rapidly into a major threat to stability, as Ankara announced terrorists have raided the Mosul consular building, abducting 48 diplomats and their families. ISIS claims these personnel as well as 32 Turkish lorry divers kidnapped earlier are not hostages but been “investigated” for links to Maliki, whatever that means. This story has so many angles that I can't possibly anticipate all the questions in your mind. But, here are the answers to my best guesses of what would be the FAQ: --Any danger of Turkish military being involved? Very little, essentially it would take huge multi-nation operation a la Libya to liberate Mosul. Perhaps the abduction of diplomats by ISIS is a counter-measure to preempt Turkish military involvement. In the longer run though, if Maliki’s forces fail to disl...