Islamist mitosis, growth obsessions
The split in the venerable Islamist movement ought to become official before the end of the year, as former AKP heavyweights Ali Babacan and Prof. Ahmet Davutoglu formally launch new parties. They are not to be underestimated, because they represent frustrated voter segments in AKP. Furthermore, President Erdogan’s policies of demonization and failure of radical economic policy experiments could push voters toward them.
We are not sure about the objective of the 3-4 December NATO summit, but it matters a lot to President Erdogan, who is flying to London with a long list of requests. Feeling out the American side for the imminence of S-400 sanctions and asking EU for refugee resettlement money lead the list. Will he succeed? What lessons will he draw from the summit?
Trade deficit widened in 12-month rolling terms in October, exactly as preliminary data showed earlier, largely on the back of base effects, but sequential data does not point to a clear deterioration in the trade deficit yet. Economic confidence recovered further in November, but we highlight some details inside that advise caution in interpreting the data.
Last week, the CBRT published its second Financial Stability Report of the year. We share some brief highlights on non-performing loans from the report inside.
There are several important data releases this week, with Q3 growth (Monday) and November inflation (Tuesday) data topping the list. We are rather close to consensus on both.
The Grand Cosmic Guru warns His audience to pay close attention to continuing dollarization, which is likely to get worse and may pave the way for the next currency shock.
Please note that our Sunday Weekly will be on its traditional December holiday till January 5th. We plan to publish a monthly report in a week or so, and continue, as usual, with our periodic updates.
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