Israeli geopolitics: Trump, Tehran, and turmoil at home—Israel faces regional threats and political unrest
Key takeaways from this report:
- A potential end to the Ukraine war under Trump’s mediation might allow Russia to redirect its focus back to the Middle East, causing destabilization from Israel’s perspective.
- American-Iranian negotiations may ease direct confrontation but might agitate Israel to take independent action.
- A Houthi escalation might lead to a renewed naval blockade and harassment of Israel. This could have a destabilizing effect on the already-failing Gaza ceasefire.
- Recent developments suggest that Trump’s administration is willing to explore diplomatic tracks that contradict core Israeli positions.
- The renewal of hostilities in Gaza appears tied to domestic political considerations, namely, to neutralize mounting opposition over institutional clashes and to reinforce government unity.
- A new Israeli policy explicitly prevents the Syrian army and any other armed elements from moving south of Damascus. In the long term, this policy might backfire by encouraging al-Golani’s government to adopt a hostile stance toward Israel and by inviting anti-Israeli elements, such as Turkey and jihadist groups, to the border area.
- The Arab plan for Gaza is likely unworkable, as it fails to address the core issue: the role of Hamas as the dominant actor in Gaza. As long as Hamas remains unwilling to relinquish control, and no realistic mechanism exists to integrate or neutralize it, the plan is unlikely to succeed—for Hamas itself, for the local administration, and for Israel.
-Israel’s constitutional crisis, involving efforts to replace senior legal and security officials, has triggered protests and raised concerns about institutional stability.
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