It ain’t over until it’s over

COLOMBIA - Report 09 Apr 2018 by Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andrés Escobar Arango and Mauricio Santa Maria

Germán Vargas-Lleras is the candidate chosen by president Santos to succeed him. This is the conclusion of the recent coalition between the U-Party and Vargas-Lleras. Santos will use all his power to further this coalition and to prevent Uribe’s protégé, Iván Duque, from winning the presidency. Recall that, on March 11, close to 6 million people voted in the center-right consulta (4.04 million for Duque, 1.54 for Ramírez and 0.4 million for Ordoñez), and that Gustavo Petro’s consulta attracted 3.3 million votes (2.85 million for Petro and the 0.5 million votes of his contender).

Hence, Vargas-Lleras is looking for at least 3.5 to 4 million votes to beat Petro and get to the run-off to take place in mid-June. Those votes could come from the nearly 2.15 million votes obtained by his own party, Cambio Radical, in congressional elections, plus the 1.85 million votes achieved by the U-Party. These votes, however, are not as easily transferable as the coalition might suggest. Many U-Party and even Cambio Radical congressmen may opt for Duque instead of Vargas-Lleras.

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