IYIP’s fateful choice may shape the outcome of municipal elections

TURKEY - In Brief 06 Dec 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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By a 35-14 vote, Iyi Party’s top decision-making body GIK turned down a request by CHP chair Ozgur Ozel to cooperate in municipal elections. The decision to go solo in the next ballot to gauge its grass-roots support is a fateful choice by IYIP that has profound implications for the party, municipal elections and Turkish politics at large. The GIK vote reflects that the nationalist wing of the party has now the upper hand in policy-making vs the more liberal center-right wing. However, simple arithmetic suggests that the latter represents a larger share of the party’s vote. By letting his lieutenants decide the outcome rather than taking a strong position on Ozel’s request, Aksener is taking a huge risk. It is conceivable, though not probable that her party will increase its share of the national vote vis-a-vis 2023 May dual elections, and may even capture some borough mayorships. Finally, if IYIP proves that it controls the swing vote in heavily contested cities, the party’s bargaining power in the unavoidable post—election horse-trading for a new constitution will increase. However IYIP needs to carve out a unique policy space between AKP, MHP and CHP which is attractive to voters most of whom are sick of the “forever war” between the two opposing camps. Herein, Aksener might nominate very popular names with strong brand recognition in second-tier cities, like Balikesir and Bursa to suggest a few, to win surprise victories. This good case scenario for IYIP is unlikely to pan out. First, the rank-and-file in cities where IYIP cohabitates with CHP elected mayors are expressly unhappy with the decision, as at least two resignations from Istanbul and Antalya manifest. It...