Jokowi Likely to Take It
Executive Summary
On the heels of the parliamentary elections, Indonesian politics are heating up. The field has been winnowed to two presidential candidates (from an initial four), and two vice presidential candidates, who will stand for the July 9 vote. This means the election will be decided in a single round.
We think Jakarta Metropolitan Gov. Joko Widodo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla have the greatest chance of winning the race. Widodo was nominated by the PDIP coalition, which now includes five political parties (the latest to join was PKPI, a small party led by former Jakarta Gov. Sutiyoso). The other candidate is Prabowo Subiyanto, a former Special Forces general and the ex son-in-law of former President Suharto. His running mate is Hatta Rajasa, a former coordinating minister for the economy in the current government. Prabowo was nominated by the Red and White Coalition, which includes three Muslim political parties and Golkar (the Workers Party).
Though the PDIP Coalition is lean, accounting for less than 40% of the popular vote – while Prabowo’s coalition accounts for just under 50% – we see the race going to Jokowi, who always runs ahead of Prabowo in the polls. And the choice of Kalla (who was VP to President Susilo Bambang Yudoyono during his first term, and now chairs Red Cross and several other social organizations) as his running mate only increases his chances. The real issue will be over how effective a leader Jokowi can be if his coalition doesn’t capture a parliamentary majority. But, as has happened in the past, Kalla (still a prominent figure in the Golkar Party, though the party has joined Prabowo’s Coalition) wields influence in Parliament. He could eventually bring the Golkar Party back into the fold; in fact, prominent Golkar Party figures have hinted at joining Jokowi’s coalition if Jokowi wins.
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