July inflation lower than expected, but no cause for cheer

TURKEY - Report 03 Aug 2022 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 2.4%, m/m, in July, notably lower than the market consensus of around 3% and our slightly higher forecast. Our forecast error largely stemmed from higher inflation assumptions in transportation, housing and to a lesser extent, hospitality sub-categories. The 12-month rate nevertheless rose further to 79.60%, up from 78.6% in June, albeit at a more modest pace this time (Graph 1; Table 1).

The increase in the 12-month CPI rate was driven mainly by three sub-categories, i.e., houseware, tobacco and liquor, and clothing and shoes, while transportation and housing categories partly offset the increase (Graph 2). Food inflation continued to edge up, rising to 94.6%, y/y, up from 93.9% in June, on the back of higher processed food inflation (Graph 3).

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