June industrial output is unsurprising and still ugly, but substantially improving at least

HUNGARY - In Brief 06 Aug 2020 by Istvan Racz
Of the various pieces of June industry data reported by the Statistical Office this morning, the relevant ones are: +17.1% mom, -12.6% yoy, implying -25.7% yoy for the whole of Q2, all on seasonally adjusted basis. Once again, there is no easy way to translate this into a GDP growth component for the sector, which in principle could end up anywhere between -15% and -25% yoy for Q2 on this basis. The good news is that the gross output figure reported today could thus even substantiate our -19.5% yoy forecast for industrial value-added for Q2.The bad news is that it is still undoubtedly ugly, most probably as for the automotive industry, standing on its feet again appears to be an especially hard task worldwide. But at least one can safely claim that a substantial recovery was definitely underway in June, its speed being quite similar to May's +16.5% yoy, which followed a virtual collapse over the previous two months.

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