June Inflation: Food Prices Disappoint

TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2014 by Murat Ucer

June (CPI) inflation came in at a higher than expected 0.3%, compared with the consensus forecast of a flat reading and our more optimistic forecast of a slight drop in the monthly rate. Inflation still eased, i.e. it has indeed peaked, but less so than expected, to 9.2% from 9.7% in May. PPI inflation also dropped to 9.8% in June, from 11.3% in May (Graphs 1-2; Table 1). Our forecast slippage as such stems entirely from food prices. The latter rose by 0.4%, whereas food prices typically drop rather significantly in June (Graph 3); we had factored in a percentage point drop even after takin...

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