Justice Fachin’s decision means Lula is eligible to run
On Monday, Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), decided to annul the convictions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 13th Circuit Court of Curitiba. According to the minister, the cases should be the responsibility of the Federal Justice Court of the Federal District (JFDF), as there is no direct connection to the embezzlement cases of Petrobras, the main focus of the Car Wash Operation. With this decision, the cases that involve the apartment in Guarujá and the ranch in Atibaia, have been thrown out. It is worth noting that specifically the decisions made in these cases were thrown out, and they now go to the JFDF.
In practice, the habeas corpus decision returns Lula’s electoral eligibility, making Lula the main candidate for the Workers’ Party (PT), and the left as a whole, for the 2022 presidential elections. However, Fachin’s decision could still be questioned and reversed.
Our evaluation at Arko Advice is that, with Fachin’s decision, former President Lula is back in the 2022 race, which means that the other political groups in the center and left that had been negotiating a candidate may have to redesign their strategy.
The biggest loser in this scenario is the political center, which still did not have a candidate but was considering an alliance with the center-left. The center loses this possibility. Lula could gain strength by 2022 and centralize support, polarizing the race against Bolsonaro.
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