Justice march and Syria needs monitoring

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Jul 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modestly. In my conversations I pronounced Turkish markets “safe” through summer with certain caveats, adding that early elections is a strong possibility in mid-2018. AKP’s loss of support among its constituency and an unsustainable growth spurt petering out by end-year were my main reasons for this call. Upon my return, I found out that CHP leader Mr. Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s justice march was attracting more interest than I anticipated, which raises political risks in the short-term, while pro-AKP press began heralding a new military incursion into Syria. In this brief, I recommence my Turkey coverage by touching on this areas, advising my readers that the chances of political turbulence reemerging has increased somewhat. Kilicdaroglu’s justice march is now followed regularly by up to 20K protestors, while each day new groups join and part. Even his detractors grudgingly admit that he has managed to re-galvanize the (referendum) NO camp and attract the respect of AKP voters. According to various AKP sources more than half of the party’s voters demand justice, too. I take this news seriously, because the government shows increasing concern. Erdogan labeled Kilicdaroglu a traitor, in cahoots with Gulenists and PKK. The party’s leading organs debated to stop the march or to ban the rally to take place at its end, on July 9th in Istanbul’s Asian borough Maltepe. Kilicdaroglu promised to ...