Kazakhstan macro: budget is stable despite amendments as revenue collection is strong

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 26 Sep 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Budget execution statistics in 8M22 show that the country’s fiscal situation remains good enough despite the amended revenues and various shocks Kazakhstan has experienced in recent months. They indicated that the economic situation looks good, as well. Apart from high KZT volatility in 2Q22, the problems with the CPC and maintenance work on the two main oil fields in the summer also affected economic performance in mid-year. On the other hand, high inflation helped to collect more revenues from the non-oil-and-gas segment of the economy. At the same time in August, revenue collection in the National Fund, which is the key recipient of the oil-and-gas taxes, also increased. On an aggregate level, statistics show that despite the planned deficit of KZT3.0 trln in 2022 as a whole, the consolidated budget was in surplus in 8M22. The deficit in 2022 as a whole will be much smaller than was anticipated by the government, and the country won’t need to borrow as much as it planned.

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