Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues to rely on the performance of a few key sectors
According to the Bureau of Economic Statistics, Kazakhstan’s economic growth slowed this year, with GDP rising 4.1% y-o-y in 1H26 and the short-term indicator of monthly economic activity up 4.8% y-o-y in 9M26 — both weaker than in 2025. However, given that economic statistics are neither fully accurate nor comprehensive, and statistical quirks are common, verifying these figures is challenging, and short-term economic trends are often unclear. Unsurprisingly, economic forecasts for Kazakhstan from different institutions vary widely and are highly sensitive to new data releases. Recently, the IMF lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.4%, while the government now expects at least 5.0%. A closer look at monetary or budgetary statistics could help to better understand current economic trends because financial data are more reliable.
Despite the economy’s ongoing diversification, economic and financial power remains concentrated in Kazakhstan as the number of registered companies in the key sectors is relatively small compared to the many smaller-scale businesses. The economy will continue to diversify gradually, but it will take time, and manufacturing — excluding semi-finished products such as metals — will remain a small share of GDP for now. This means budget revenues will still largely depend on oil prices and the exchange rate. A weaker tenge could aid diversification and boost the profitability of local manufacturing. If oil prices stabilize within a more typical range, it could benefit the Kazakh economy, provided the government can curb its spending and help drive disinflation.
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