Kazakhstan macro: Economy likely to grow over 5% in 2023

KAZAKHSTAN - Forecast 24 Jul 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Kazakhstan's GDP may grow by over 5.0%, and domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. One can expect a strong increase in investment activity given the need for the country to diversify its geographical structure of foreign trade. An inflow of foreign capital will support this. One can also expect strong performance in the construction sector. On the production side, both the goods and services production segment will deliver about 5% growth. The construction and trade segments will remain among the key drivers of economic growth. Given recent budgetary amendments, one can expect more social spending from budgets of various levels in 2H23, which will boost domestic consumption. As imports are growing fast, net exports will make a negative contribution to economic growth. The current account will turn negative amid fast growth in imports. The dollar-denominated GDP will likely exceed $262 bn in 2023.

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